On November 15th, the Chinese government reduced the export tax rebate for photovoltaic modules from the previous 13% to 9%. What are the short-term effects of this change on the photovoltaic market?
1. Delivery Impact: Pressure on Supply Chains
November 19th – November 28th:
With the tax rebate cut, many orders originally scheduled for overseas shipment in December are now rushing to be delivered. There will be significant pressure on the delivery of popular models.
November 29th – December 15th:
Domestic orders delayed from late November will gradually start to ship, but there will still be intense pressure. Large orders will likely need to be split for delivery.
December 15th – December 31st:
Delivery pressure may ease somewhat, but the situation will still be tight.
Conclusion:
Short-term pressure on deliveries will be immense, mid-term deliveries will be sporadic, and there will be gradual fulfillment towards the end of the year.
Recommendations:
1. If you must ship, avoid popular models.
2. If you need popular models, delay the production schedule.
3. If shipment is necessary, split the order and source from multiple reliable suppliers instead of relying on a single one.
2. Pricing Trends: Short-term Price Increases Likely
November 19th – December 31st:
Steady with slight increases Delivery pressure is high, and manufacturers are not worried about selling out, so there’s a possibility of price hikes.
· Key products:
Expect price fluctuations in popular high-efficiency PV modules as well as high-demand modules such as bifacial solar panels.
· Recommendation:
If you are planning to buy in the short term, it may be wise to lock in prices now to avoid price hikes.
January 1st – January 31st:
Stable Due to the Chinese New Year holiday on January 29th, actual production time is limited to about half a month. Therefore, factory delivery pressure will be lighter, and prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly.
February 1st – March 31st:
Increase overseas, stable domestically
Overseas: A slight price increase is inevitable due to the reduced tax rebate.
Domestic: Prices will remain largely unchanged.
3. Moregosolar Conclution:
* Mainstream models will remain stable with minor short-term increases, maintaining stability in the long term.
* Non-mainstream models may see slight price increases with delivery pressure.
* European warehouse stock will sell well in the short term, remain stable in the mid-term, and experience slight price increases in the long term.
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Company Name: MOREGO SOLAR
City, State, Country: Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
Website：www.moregosolar.com
Millie James is an American real estate investor and Adjunct Professor in Entrepreneurship, Emeritus at Business School.
Disclaimer: The views, suggestions, and opinions expressed here are the sole responsibility of the experts. No journalist was involved in the writing and production of this article.
